Nearly eighty-two years to the day, the modern grandson versions of the Nazi Tiger tank and Russian T-34 are, once again, about to clash against each other in a mighty confrontation across the Ukrainian steppes.
With Germany’s belated decision to send Leopard II tanks to Ukraine, further allowing other countries to send their Leopard IIs to Ukraine as well, is yet another escalation of the ever-raging war.
Add into the mix, the US’s decision to send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, and the conflict has broadened into a full scope global conflict.
Proxy wars are actual wars, undeclared.
Following this logic, it cannot be argued that we are now in a World War.
As I anticipated Russia’s movements in Belarus and said it was not a bluff, so I now agree with the reports that Russia is about to call for another major mobilization that would add another 700,000 conscripts into the Russian Army.
When I originally made a prediction regarding Russia’s intentions towards Ukraine it only involved the eastern regions of Ukraine, namely the Donbass territory. In other words, I felt that Russia’s actions were not centered on the full takeover of Ukraine. Now, in reflection of all of the recent global developments and political decisions, I believe Russia feels it has no choice but to plan for a full invasion. From reports coming out of Russia, there are many Russians who believe that the west cannot be trusted and the only avenue left to them is to fully mobilize and prepare for global war.
I anticipate that Russia’s war games did not include global conflict, however, for the past eight months or so, it is becoming apparent that their war games have expanded. Whether this means that the war of attrition will evolve into a full conflict and include maneuver centered logistics and strategy, I’m not convinced, but the potential is certainly there.
Not 1 Inch to the East
Recently the president of Ukraine has mentioned that Russia is on the verge of unleashing a revenge attack against Ukraine.
To some extent, war is based on many emotional components, revenge, an act whose origin comes from hate, is one of them.
But no, the pending military operation, is far more than just a vengeful attack.
Putin has said repeatedly for the past 25 years that he did not want to fight a war over Ukraine. However, with NATO ever expanding eastward, Putin, as the leader of Russia, was forced by his citizens to act.
Forced to act because of the echo of diplomatic words uttered over three decades prior.
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After explaining why the U.S. wanted the reunited Germany to stay within the framework of NATO, former Secretary of State James Baker told former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev that “if we maintain a presence in a Germany that is a part of NATO, there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO 1 inch to the east.”
“I put the following question to (Gorbachev),” Baker recounted in a letter to German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. “‘Would you prefer to see a united Germany outside of NATO, independent and with no U.S. forces, or would you prefer a unified Germany to be tied to NATO, with assurances that NATO’s jurisdiction would not shift 1 inch eastward from its present position?’”
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The US Government has argued that no legal document exists that prohibits NATO’s eastward expansion, but diplomacy is a binding process and Baker has readily admitted this interaction.
After multiple breaks of this diplomatic promise, the Baltic states for example, Russia was finally left little choice but to act against NATO’s eastward expansion in regard to Ukraine.
The existential threat of Russia allowing Ukraine to join NATO after diplomatic terms contrary would have been strong enough to cause the collapse of its government, perhaps its sovereignty.
Even after all the political deceptions, Russia was willing to sit down and negotiate a peace this spring.
Now it’s too late.
The only peace Russia will accept will align fully with its terms.
The massive build up taking place does not just stop with the 600,000 to 800,000 that Russia has called up and is training, but a possible full mobilization.
World War has started.
Russia never wanted a war. There are plenty open source media outlets that prove this.
But if war must be fought, Russia intends to win it.
Now the world will witness what it witnessed 80 plus years ago. A mighty Russian Army.
This is a reckoning.
Since the start of this war I have declared, without compunction, that the military equation in Ukraine is an unwinnable calculation for the western forces.
NATO and the US cannot win this war.
Photos: Nico-Smit, Carlos Esteves