Expansion of Death
The Russian advance is continuing throughout the entire front, from Tavil’zhanka, approximately 100 kilometers east of Kharkov, to Opytne approximately seven kilometers south of Bakhmut, where the Russian Army has pushed west at a sharp 5 kilometer spike, to the far south of the front line, at and near Zherebianky, there have been tremendous gains. While the gains are not substantial in a mobile war, because this is a war of attrition, the advances are massive and significant. Massive and significant in the sense that in a war of attrition, territorial gains are only made when there are no longer any enemy forces standing opposed.
While the western media and governmental propaganda have been saying since the war began that Russia will soon be depleted of weaponry, munitions, and force of strength, the clamoring has started to subside and now more accurate reporting has started to seep through, even in western media outlets, especially regarding KIA lists and casualties.
According to Colonel Douglas Macgregor, using various open sources, obituaries, and by collating media outlets and public releases, Ukrainians have suffered 157,000 KIAs and over 300,000 causalities and Russia has stomached 20,000 KIA and 50,000 casualties.
Considering his experience, and I’m certain vast network of background sources, I will consider his numbers more factual than any I could inference.
These are staggering numbers, and ones that indicate a hopeless situation for Ukraine.
The latest movements in the global political arena further suggest a vivid snapshot of NATOs intentions regarding the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. For the US to be pressuring Germany to release Leopard tanks to Ukraine, while being hesitant with releasing Abrams tanks, displays the main reason why the US has encouraged and orchestrated the conflict in the first place. This being a proxy war, it would be unwise for the US to deploy such valuable main frame hardware and be exposed to full scale enemy engagement, in a losing scenario. If there was ever an indicator about how the Pentagon sees the ultimate conclusion to the Ukraine Conflict, it is in their hesitancy to send MBTs to Ukraine.
Milley and Austin also mentioned logistical, training, and maintenance limitations in their reasoning. Lastly, they offered a stunning admission, the Abrams “are not the right vehicles for the fight in Ukraine.”
This reveals the vast differences in how the Russians fight, compared to how the US fights.
Throughout the modern history of war, Russian has shown its precise thinking when it comes to warfare. They build hardware and equipment that is combat efficient in universal warfare across many geographical structures and topographies.
Logistically speaking, the US is equally precise, however, the US Army does not think in whole warfare dynamics, rather it thinks in compartmentalized objectives and familiar concepts. The Abrams MBT is not universal hardware but fits within certain fixed placed diameters and ideal rectilinear fields. There is nothing wrong in this and I am not critical of this line of thinking, I am simply providing light as to the reasoning behind the US’s decision.
The clear global war that is starting to materialize is bringing Russia to a hardened state of mind.
According to Ukrainska Pravda Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, claimed that “Russia will struggle, and there should be no illusions.”
Source: Medvedev on Telegram
Quote: “The Ramstein meeting and allocation of heavy armament to Kyiv leave no doubt that our enemies will be trying to exhaust us for an indefinite amount of time, or better yet, to destroy us.
They do have enough armament. If needed, they will start producing new weapons. So there should be no illusions.”
I am reminded of a World War II quote by German General Heinz Guderian when he first observed the T-34, “I’m looking at the best tank in the war.”
What startles many is that it was not the Nazis but rather the Russians who possessed the most advanced hardware in the war. In fact, the Nazis did not even know the T-34 existed until they saw it on the battlefield.
It is the same with the T-14 Armata today. Little is known of this innovative MBT and its OKR Armata (Armament) design and its unmanned Tachanka-B version. Nor is there much information regarding the “Armata” Universal Combat Platform.
I will go even further. Given the Russian Military’s propensity for innovation and secrecy, I believe there is an even more formidable Russian MBT prototype being developed somewhere in the Ural mountains that only the highest Russian Government and Military officials are aware of.
World War III is directly upon us.
Sit down and Shut Up—Leopard’s Spots
In the customary power grab that proceeds an oppressor’s rise to power, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a statute that expands his government’s power to regulate media, a clear advancement leading down a path of censorship, in a continual, ongoing practice he has practiced ever since he assumed the presidency.
As the Ukraine War rages on, the spots have once again materialized on the leopard. Governing is much simpler when all dissenting voices are silenced, and Zelenskyy seems to like that silence to be absolute.
As expressed above, it is not the first time Zelenskyy has reverted to quashing open speech and media. In fact, this was one of the happenings Putin cited in providing reasons for the special military operation. While Putin is no angel, it is only fair to judge his adversary in the same light.
As the war concludes its first year, its escalation is apparent and its ultimate conclusion is evident.
I will continue to declare, without compunction, that the military equation in Ukraine is an unwinnable calculation for the western forces.
NATO and the US cannot win this war.
Photos: Louis Hansel, Holly Mindrup