Although the Russo-Ukraine War has been a horrific struggle of attrition, there have been many developments off or around the battlefield that have caused a fluid pattern. In prior blogs, I predicted Putin’s recent communications with Belarus, and at the time of my projection I mentioned that, while it was not a bluff—the Russians are not bluffers—it was not an actual point of attack for any future military offensives, unless the Ukrainian Military disregards the possibility.
Although the recent downed missile near Belarus caused a rise in tensions, it plays a significant role in the conflict more for its potential land use and future cooperation and military development than for any impending direct military application. This is especially witnessed in another prediction I made in an earlier blog: a Kharkov Offensive.
If and when Russia executes a winter or spring offensive, I forecast it will occur to capture Kharkov. While other priorities may perhaps take place, Kharkov will certainly be at the center of Russia’s plan.
While Bakhmut has become the grinder that it now is, I predicted an imminent Russian offensive towards Kharkov. It is now beginning to take shape as Russia has not only been mobilizing huge resources in the north, but has made substantial gains. From the Dvorichna and Masiutivka area, to Dibrova, and all the areas in between, a solid northern advance has continued and an unmistakable front has developed. Without question Lyman is in the crosshairs.
It is the objective of a return to Kharkov by that Russia that brings the strategic importance of Belarus into play. Belarus provides the northern barrier that allows Russia to launch an offensive towards Kharkov without requiring any right flank protection.
No Happy New Year
Since the Russian declared terrorist bombing of the Kerch Bridge, Russia has unleashed a hellish nightmare of missile strikes against Ukrain’s power network. Even though Ukraine has asserted its innocence for the act, in light of the recent Ukrainian drone attacks against Russia, it is highly likely that their military conducted the operation.
While my judgments are based on Russian intelligence reports, as well as various other sources, Russian military retaliations have launched a savage missile assault against Ukraine that has ravaged its power structure and destroyed much of the infrastructure that the Ukrainian Military makes heavy use of in its war efforts.
During the missile campaign, for the past months, Western sources have claimed that Russia is depleting its missile and artillery stockpile, even in the face of witnessing the fact that Russia has escalated its bombing attacks, even so much as to launch another vicious missile attack hours prior to the Ukrainians’ attempt at a dark, cold, and miserable New Year’s celebration, even if only to celebrate another night of survival.
It is becoming clear, beyond even a shadow of a doubt, Russia has been stockpiling the software and electronic technology to configure and assemble their missiles, as well as perhaps striking under the table transactions to purchase same items.
Having studied the Russian Military’s method of warfare for many years, I am certain that while it is possible Russia is striking backroom agreements and dark money purchases of weapons and munitions, it is more likely that Russia has been planning the logistics of this war for decades.
To be more declarative: There is no Russian weapons or munitions shortage. Russia is not going to run out of their cruise missiles and artillery pieces and artillery ammunitions, nor their bullets and field mortars until this war ends.
Throughout the past 100 years, Russia and China have not only aligned politically and military on numerous occasions, they have done so against a western infringement on what they consider their way of life and future wellbeing. This was evident in peace time, as well during the Korean and Viet Nam Wars, to name a few.
This political and military alignment once again is being broadcast for the world to witness. While the military capabilities of both countries, in comparison to the United States, can be challenged, what cannot be questioned is the immense reservoir of soldierly force a combined Russia and China present.
It is clear what Russia is displaying to NATO. China can mobilize the largest ground force in the world, plus it possesses technological prowess that could be extremely challenging to the US and NATO. In fact, recent US DoD projections calculate China has the technological edge to take out 80% to 90% of all US military satellites within the first hours of any conflict.
It is entirely apparent that Russia has deeply planned the war games regarding Ukraine for a long time, perhaps since before 2014, maybe even longer. From the economic warfare that has been fought, which they won with the elevation and rise of the ruble (although the ruble has declined in recent months, it is still far stronger than NATO had planned on) to actual battlefield events, to the ultimate conclusion of war: logistics, Russia has been ahead of all success and failure they have been faced with.
I will continue to declare, without compunction, that the military equation in Ukraine is an unwinnable calculation for the western forces.
NATO and the US cannot win this war.
Photos: Jeff-Kingma, Nikita-Karimov, Max-Kukurudziak